From Remembrance to National Resolve: A Strong Start for Somalia’s First National P/CVE Conference, and the Road Ahead

From Remembrance to National Resolve: A Strong Start for Somalia’s First National P/CVE Conference, and the Road Ahead

Incidental Brief | October 2026 Bottom line Somalia has taken a significant step. In convening its first National Conference on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism, TUBSAN brought the country together around a single message and a shared commitment to act. The task now is to turn that momentum into delivery, and the foundations for doing so are in place. What…

Policy Brief: Transforming Higher Education in Somalia through the OFFSET Framework

Policy Brief: Transforming Higher Education in Somalia through the OFFSET Framework

Focus Area: Higher Education Policy, Structural Internationalisation, Curriculum Reform Executive Summary The adoption of English as a medium of instruction is a critical step toward integrating Somali higher education into the global knowledge economy. However, systemic curricular changes require empirical, structured pathways rather than ad-hoc implementations. The OHirsi Foundational Framework for Systemic English Teaching (OFFSET), originally developed in 2022, offers…

Running Dry, Running North

Running Dry, Running North

Displacement in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa Corridor, Special Commentary. August, 2026 Executive Summary The corridor running from the Ethiopian highlands and the Somali interior through Djibouti and Bosaso, across the Gulf of Aden into Yemen, and onward to the Saudi frontier is now one of the busiest irregular migration routes in the world. It is also one…

Somalia at a Crossroads: Cooler Heads Carry the Day

A Policy Brief on the Convergent Political, Security, and Humanitarian Emergency Executive Summary Somalia is passing through one of the most dangerous junctures in its recent history. A political dispute over electoral legitimacy has hardened into open confrontation in the capital, while the country simultaneously confronts a resurgent insurgency, a fracturing federation, and a hunger emergency that places roughly six…

How OHirsi’s (2026) Wheelbarrow Motion Theory Challenges and Advances Lee’s (1966) Push-Pull Model

OVERVIEW Irregular South-to-North migration has accelerated in recent decades, yet dominant analytical frameworks remain ill-equipped to explain why. Most policy responses treat climate change and state corruption as separate, additive problems — each to be addressed through its own silo of interventions. This brief introduces the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory (WMT), an original framework developed by Adam I. OHirsi (2026) that…

The Wheelbarrow Motion Theory: Climate Change and Corruption as Interdependent Drivers of Irregular South-To-North Migration – Practical Solutions and Policy Responses

The Wheelbarrow Motion Theory: Climate Change and Corruption as Interdependent Drivers of Irregular South-To-North Migration – Practical Solutions and Policy Responses

Adam OHirsiForesight for Practical Solutions Abstract Irregular migration from the Global South to the Global North has increased alongside intensifying climate stress and persistent governance failure. Existing migration frameworks often examine environmental pressures and corruption separately, limiting their capacity to explain sustained irregular migration and the limited effectiveness of deterrence-based policies. This article proposes the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory to explain…

FPS May 2026 AI Cyber security East Africa.

FPS May 2026 AI Cyber security East Africa.

QUARTERLY POLICY BRIEFING May 2026  |  TECHNOLOGY & GOVERNANCE SERIES Digital Frontiers, Shared Stakes: The Imperative for East African Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity East Africa is at a crossroads. The region’s digital boom — from mobile money to broadband corridors — has opened doors that were unimaginable a decade ago. But those same doors swing both ways. Without…

Why Saudi Arabia Holds All the Cards Against Secession Syndicates in Its Neighborhood

Why Saudi Arabia Holds All the Cards Against Secession Syndicates in Its Neighborhood

FPS Quarterly Brief – January, 2026 The Middle East and the Horn of Africa have seen more than their share of foreign-induced and indulged separatist movements in recent years.—Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, and several dormant others. External actors continue to back fragmentation, betting that division will open doors for their own influence. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has consistently…