The statement welcomes Türkiye’s mediation and the broader diplomatic engagement of Somalia’s international partners. “But the decision, when it comes, must be Somali. This is the make-or-break moment,” the presser reads.
Somalia at a Crossroads: Cooler Heads Carry the Day
A Policy Brief on the Convergent Political, Security, and Humanitarian Emergency Executive Summary Somalia is passing through one of the most dangerous junctures in its recent history. A political dispute over electoral legitimacy has hardened into open confrontation in the capital, while the country simultaneously confronts a resurgent insurgency, a fracturing federation, and a hunger emergency that places roughly six…
How OHirsi’s (2026) Wheelbarrow Motion Theory Challenges and Advances Lee’s (1966) Push-Pull Model
OVERVIEW Irregular South-to-North migration has accelerated in recent decades, yet dominant analytical frameworks remain ill-equipped to explain why. Most policy responses treat climate change and state corruption as separate, additive problems — each to be addressed through its own silo of interventions. This brief introduces the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory (WMT), an original framework developed by Adam I. OHirsi (2026) that…
The Wheelbarrow Motion Theory: Climate Change and Corruption as Interdependent Drivers of Irregular South-To-North Migration – Practical Solutions and Policy Responses
Adam OHirsiForesight for Practical Solutions Abstract Irregular migration from the Global South to the Global North has increased alongside intensifying climate stress and persistent governance failure. Existing migration frameworks often examine environmental pressures and corruption separately, limiting their capacity to explain sustained irregular migration and the limited effectiveness of deterrence-based policies. This article proposes the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory to explain…
FPS May 2026 AI Cyber security East Africa.
QUARTERLY POLICY BRIEFING May 2026 | TECHNOLOGY & GOVERNANCE SERIES Digital Frontiers, Shared Stakes: The Imperative for East African Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity East Africa is at a crossroads. The region’s digital boom — from mobile money to broadband corridors — has opened doors that were unimaginable a decade ago. But those same doors swing both ways. Without…
Why Saudi Arabia Holds All the Cards Against Secession Syndicates in Its Neighborhood
FPS Quarterly Brief – January, 2026 The Middle East and the Horn of Africa have seen more than their share of foreign-induced and indulged separatist movements in recent years.—Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, and several dormant others. External actors continue to back fragmentation, betting that division will open doors for their own influence. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has consistently…
No Home is Really Home for the Somali Youth in 21st Century.
Dr. Adam Aw Hirsi, Director of Foresight for Practical Solutions. They were born into a country that had already vanished from their parents’ hands. The Somali Democratic Republic collapsed in 1991, and the idea of one meaningful and cherished shared home collapsed with it. Thirty-four years later, the state still hasn’t come back—not in any way that feels solid. In…
Somalia’s North-East State — A Triumph for Unity and a Blow to Secessionist Ambitions
FPS Quarterly. September, 2025. On July 30, 2025, Somalia achieved a transformative milestone with the establishment of the North-East State, a new federal member state encompassing approximately 40% of the former British Somaliland Protectorate, including the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions. This bold and historic achievement, spearheaded by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, marks…
Somalia’s Political Pulse: FPS Quarterly. July, 2025
Overview The socio-political landscape of Somalia during the second quarter of 2025 presents a complex interplay of progress and challenges. Key advancements in national priorities are noteworthy; however, these gains are overshadowed by lingering uncertainties within the political arena. As Somalia approaches pivotal elections scheduled for 2026, it becomes increasingly imperative to assess how these developments may influence the country’s…