Somalia at a Crossroads: Cooler Heads Carry the Day

A Policy Brief on the Convergent Political, Security, and Humanitarian Emergency Executive Summary Somalia is passing through one of the most dangerous junctures in its recent history. A political dispute over electoral legitimacy has hardened into open confrontation in the capital, while the country simultaneously confronts a resurgent insurgency, a fracturing federation, and a hunger emergency that places roughly six…

How OHirsi’s (2026) Wheelbarrow Motion Theory Challenges and Advances Lee’s (1966) Push-Pull Model

OVERVIEW Irregular South-to-North migration has accelerated in recent decades, yet dominant analytical frameworks remain ill-equipped to explain why. Most policy responses treat climate change and state corruption as separate, additive problems — each to be addressed through its own silo of interventions. This brief introduces the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory (WMT), an original framework developed by Adam I. OHirsi (2026) that…

The Wheelbarrow Motion Theory: Climate Change and Corruption as Interdependent Drivers of Irregular South-To-North Migration – Practical Solutions and Policy Responses

The Wheelbarrow Motion Theory: Climate Change and Corruption as Interdependent Drivers of Irregular South-To-North Migration – Practical Solutions and Policy Responses

Adam OHirsiForesight for Practical Solutions Abstract Irregular migration from the Global South to the Global North has increased alongside intensifying climate stress and persistent governance failure. Existing migration frameworks often examine environmental pressures and corruption separately, limiting their capacity to explain sustained irregular migration and the limited effectiveness of deterrence-based policies. This article proposes the Wheelbarrow Motion Theory to explain…

FPS May 2026 AI Cyber security East Africa.

FPS May 2026 AI Cyber security East Africa.

QUARTERLY POLICY BRIEFING May 2026  |  TECHNOLOGY & GOVERNANCE SERIES Digital Frontiers, Shared Stakes: The Imperative for East African Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity East Africa is at a crossroads. The region’s digital boom — from mobile money to broadband corridors — has opened doors that were unimaginable a decade ago. But those same doors swing both ways. Without…

Why Saudi Arabia Holds All the Cards Against Secession Syndicates in Its Neighborhood

Why Saudi Arabia Holds All the Cards Against Secession Syndicates in Its Neighborhood

FPS Quarterly Brief – January, 2026 The Middle East and the Horn of Africa have seen more than their share of foreign-induced and indulged separatist movements in recent years.—Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, and several dormant others. External actors continue to back fragmentation, betting that division will open doors for their own influence. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has consistently…